GOP gets ready to gain control of the House: five things to watch

In less than six weeks, House Republicans will reclaim control of the lower chamber after spending the previous four years in the minority, ushering in a new period of split government before the 2024 presidential race.

The change occurs after President Biden enjoyed two years of Democratic control of the House and Senate. And it will have a significant impact on how Washington functions. It will pave the way for numerous conflicts between the House and the administration over issues like government spending, border security, the fight against inflation, and the future of Medicare and Social Security, among many others.

Republicans have also pledged to devote a large portion of their efforts to probes into the administration’s management of the southern border, allegations of political favoritism at the Justice Department, and Hunter Biden’s financial transactions.

Here are five things to keep an eye on as control of the House is about to shift.

McCarthy’s chances of winning are slim.

Republicans went into this month’s midterm elections expecting significant gains that would provide them a comfortable buffer for advancing legislation through the lower chamber the following year. Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) had forecast a 60-seat shift.

Instead, they barely managed to win, and as a result, they now have a meager majority—just a few seats—and limited leeway when they bring measures to the floor.

These factors work to McCarthy’s fiercest internal critics, the far-right Freedom Caucus, who are already trying to pass a number of conservative demands that party leaders have been unwilling to support, such as a balanced budget amendment and ending U.S. financing for Ukraine.

GOP leaders would have been exempt from those criteria if Republicans had won a wider margin of victory. As things stand, McCarthy could be compelled to take them into account, even if it threatens the GOP’s precarious majority and more moderate Republicans in 2024.

He had anticipated, what, 60 seats? People will doubt your performance if you don’t carry through as you promised. A former leadership assistant said that they “didn’t get precisely what they wanted. “A narrow margin makes it extremely challenging.”

In the next fights over raising the debt limit and funding the government, which are similar to the ones that sparked the Tea Party movement more than ten years ago and have given GOP leaders trouble ever since, McCarthy is also expected to come under fire from conservatives.

“When you consider Paul Ryan and John Boehner, two former Speakers, they resigned. Because they were unable to control their right-wing fanatics, they left early, according to House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), who spoke to MINIECHAT on Tuesday. “I believe McCarthy will identify the same issue.”

Taking home the Speaker’s gavel

McCarthy has an even more pressing issue when the new Congress gets underway: whether he will have enough GOP support to win the Speaker’s gavel given the Republicans’ tenuous House majority.

188 votes to 31 helped McCarthy comfortably secure the Republican selection for the position earlier this month. But when the House convenes on January 3 to elect the new Speaker, he must clear a considerably greater hurdle: a majority of the whole house. McCarthy might have far less than 31 defectors given that Republicans are projected to have 222 House seats.

McCarthy has received support from former President Trump and a number of notable Freedom Caucus members, including Reps. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) and Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.).

However, some conservatives have vowed to oppose him, notably Reps. Ralph Norman (R-SC), Andy Biggs (R-AZ), and Matt Gaetz (R-FL), all of whom have said that they are adamantly opposed. Additionally expressing opposition are Representatives Bob Good (R-Va.) and Matt Rosendale (R-Mont.). Some are stating that they are just the tip of the iceberg in terms of the resistance.

McCarthy is the first to realize the internal issue he’s facing. In 2015, conservatives thwarted McCarthy’s quest for the Speakership.

Just moments after securing the GOP nomination, he told reporters, “Look, we have our job cut out for us. “We need a little margin of victory. We must pay attention to everyone at our conference.

Democrats are keeping a close eye on the proceedings because of concern that any commitments McCarthy makes to the conservatives would render the lower chamber unmanageable.

It’s one thing to kind of say, “Well, I can afford to overlook the nutcases like Marjorie Taylor Greene,” if you have a sizable majority. On Monday, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) said on MSNBC. It’s another if just a small group of insane people are keeping you in the speaker’s chair.

For Democrats, change has arrived.

The opposite will not be true across the aisle if the GOP leadership structure essentially stays the same the next year.

Following the departure of Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and her top two lieutenants, Majority Leaders Steny Hoyer (Md.) and Jim Clyburn (S.C.), from the top three leadership positions after almost two decades together, House Democrats will undergo a significant makeover in the next Congress.

The resignations paved the way for a new group of promising Democrats to take control of the party. Reps. Hakeem Jeffries (New York), Katherine Clark (Mass. ), and Pete Aguilar (Calif.) quickly stepped forward to fill the vacuum as contenders for the top three slots, respectively.

When the House Democrats hold their leadership elections the following week, all three are running uncontested and are anticipated to win their seats with ease.

Jeffries would become the first Black politician to lead any party, in either chamber, since the country’s inception, if he were to win the minority leader position. By placing a New York City legislator in command of the party in both the House and the Senate, where Chuck Schumer is anticipated to return as majority leader next year, it would further reduce the Democrats’ geographical diversity.

Pelosi’s resignation in particular has sparked concerns about the upcoming strategic shifts in both parties.

Democrats must decide what function Pelosi and Hoyer, who are both remaining in Congress, will fulfill as rank-and-file representatives. It also entails choosing whether to give committee chairs and rank-and-file members greater influence after decades in which Pelosi had a majority of the power. And they’ll have their job cut out for them in attempting to replicate Pelosi’s 20-year fundraising career.

Finding another Democratic opponent to exploit on the campaign trail will be difficult for Republicans, who have spent years and millions of dollars trashing Pelosi.

McCarthy and Jeffries, the prospective top leaders of the House, are having a difficult time getting along.

McCarthy has been under constant assault from Jeffries, the chairman of the Democratic Caucus, ever since the Republican leader warmed up to Trump in the days after last year’s shooting spree at the Capitol, branding him “embarrassing” and “pathetic.” And it has been a while since they chatted.

Jeffries recognized the lack of any genuine relationship last week.

On “Meet the Press,” he said, “I do, I believe, have a lot closer connection with Steve Scalise.”

Impeachment is already a possibility.

As a message to the administration and any GOP leaders who may be hesitant to take such action, House conservatives have been pushing the case for impeaching Biden and members of his cabinet for months.

McCarthy gave the Republicans a break on Tuesday by stating that if Alejandro Mayorkas didn’t quit sooner, he would think about impeaching him the next year. Republicans have long criticized Mayorkas for how he has handled the migrant problem at the southern border, and they have already presented motions in this Congress to have him removed.

McCarthy told reporters in El Paso, Texas, “If Secretary Mayorkas does not quit, House Republicans will investigate. Every order, every action, and every failure will decide whether we can initiate an impeachment probe.”

The announcement will undoubtedly please the GOP’s conservative flank, whom McCarthy has to win over in order to become Speaker. It will be interesting to watch whether he follows through on his threat next year.

Following the impeachment of President Clinton in 1998, Republicans suffered political backlash, and many in the party, notably Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), have cautioned against repeating the error the following year.

However, McCarthy faces risks as well if he disobeys the impeachment requirements: It may incite outrage from the GOP base, which is still mostly Trump-supportive and eager to get revenge for the two impeachments that targeted the previous president. Conservatives will be keeping a close eye on events and standing ready to criticize GOP leaders for not being more active in their opposition to the Biden White House.

McCarthy just said that Republicans would look into Mayorkas and see where it went, thus leaving his options open.

In El Paso, he stated, “This probe might result in an impeachment inquiry.”

Additional battles to watch

Most of Biden’s ambitious domestic agenda is expected to be put on hold with Republicans assuming control of the House. However, it does not signal the end of challenging legislation.

In order to avoid a government shutdown and to avoid a default, Congress will still be required to increase the federal government’s borrowing capacity next year.

Both debates are anticipated to put pressure on House GOP leaders to strike a balance between the conservative firebrands of the lower chamber who say they are willing to risk shutdowns and defaults in order to reduce government spending and accomplish other items on their legislative wish list, and the more moderate forces of the Senate, where McConnell will have to approve any fiscal deals.

A balanced budget amendment may come up during that discussion, which is why Ralph Norman said that he is opposed to McCarthy’s campaign for the Speakership. The large entitlement programs, Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security, which run automatically and account for a significant portion of the federal budget, are also expected to come under pressure from the right to be curtailed.

House Republicans would have a ready chance to attach additional priority measures, such as clauses to increase domestic oil drilling, roll back environmental rules, and construct a border wall, to must-pass federal budget bills.

Such clauses would be opposed by a Democratic-led Senate, and Biden would probably veto any such legislation that made it that far. However, the GOP-led House may press the matter.

Next year, funding for Ukraine will get a lot of attention. Congress has authorized tens of billions of dollars to aid Kyiv in fending off the Russian attack while it is controlled by the Democrats and with substantial bipartisan backing. However, a handful of conservatives have vowed to reject any further financing, arguing that the money would be better used to address issues at home.

Democrats have already begun to express their worries.

Rep. Jim Himes (D-Conn.) said on Tuesday on MSNBC: “It’s not hard to figure out that with a little, tiny majority — you know, Matt Gaetz, Paul Gosar, and Marjorie Taylor Greene gathered in a room determine the destiny of Kevin McCarthy.” How much does he feed them is kind of the question, then.