The seven persons in the midterms whose interests are most at issue

The results of next Tuesday’s midterm elections will have a significant impact on Vice President Biden, his party, and the Republicans hoping to unseat him in the 2024 presidential race.

Some of the most senior members of Congress will also have their jobs on the line.

Here are the seven individuals whose lives will be most affected by the outcome.

Biden, President

On Monday, October 24, 2022, in Washington, President Biden speaks while paying a visit to the Democratic National Committee’s headquarters (Associated Press).

The significance of the midterm results for the president cannot be overstated.

Biden will be constrained during the last two years of his first term, at least in terms of domestic policy, if Democrats lose control of the House, an eventuality that seems extremely likely.

Additionally, it is almost a certain that he, his administration, and his family, especially his son Hunter Biden, will be the subject of GOP-led investigations. Whether or not real misconduct is found, such investigations may be politically and personally difficult.

The president’s wider political status should also be taken into account.

Biden may proceed with his bid for reelection if Democrats maintain Senate dominance and limit their losses in the House.

However, if his party suffers significant setbacks, rumblings about the president resigning after his first term will become considerably louder.

Even if Biden decided to continue in that situation, the likelihood of a primary challenge would increase dramatically.

Trump, a former president

On August 10, 2022, in New York, former president Donald Trump leaves Trump Tower on his way to the state’s attorney general’s office for a deposition in a civil inquiry. by the Associated Press

Trump has been actively engaged in the midterm elections from the beginning, endorsing several candidates in the Republican primary. Most of the time, his support propelled his favoured candidates to victory.

But when the former president and his party discuss the likelihood of his standing for office again in 2024 on Tuesday, something crucial will happen.

In close contests, the outcome of the Trump-backed candidates will be critical. The candidates that will be keenly followed include two from Arizona, Blake Masters for Senate and Kari Lake for governor, as well as Mehmet Oz from Pennsylvania, Herschel Walker from Georgia, and J.D. Vance from Ohio.

It will be a potent counter to the claim that Trump and Trumpism have waning or limited support if most of those candidates—or all—win.

On the other side, if the Trump-backed candidates fall short, it will inevitably raise questions about his aggressive and divisive style, especially among Republicans.

Such a result would also demonstrate that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), one of Trump’s key internal adversaries, was correct when he expressed concerns about “candidate quality” back in August.

Florida Ron DeSantis, governor (R)

The “electability” claim made by Republican governor Ron DeSantis is at stake in the midterm elections on November 8. (Getty)

The consensus is that DeSantis is the only Republican with a possibility of unseating Trump for the 2024 presidential candidacy of the party.

DeSantis’ supporters claim that while he lacks Trump’s self-destructive turmoil, he has many of the same right-wing populist tendencies.

Next Tuesday, when the Florida governor is anticipated to win reelection handily over his Democratic opponent, former Rep. Charlie Crist, DeSantis’ “electability” argument is likely to gain more traction (Fla.).

Tuesday’s RealClearPolitics average showed DeSantis ahead of Crist by 12.3 points.

In a state that is still a contest, although one that leans Republican, it will be amazing if the final outcome is within that margin.

In the Sunshine State, Trump beat Biden by only three points in 2020, while DeSantis himself narrowly defeated Democrat Andrew Gillum in his first run for governor in 2018.

On the other hand, the Florida governor’s aspirations for 2024 would be dashed by an unexpectedly good showing by Crist.

Gavin Newsom, governor of California (D)

On Wednesday, April 27, 2022, in Sacramento, California, California Governor Gavin Newsom delivers a speech at the California Association of Realtors Legislative Day. by the Associated Press

Next Tuesday’s election isn’t actually about the governor of California’s own campaign.

There is no real reason to doubt that Newsom will be elected to govern Golden State for a second term. He now has a lead in most surveys of roughly 20 points.

Results elsewhere, though, could be essential to his future goals.

The most daring Democrat to put his name up as a possible challenger against Biden in 2024 is Newsom.

He has attacked DeSantis in Florida in TV advertisements on the other side of the nation, a move that seemed to be made just to generate attention and media rumours.

He has been critical of the national party’s message and strategy in general, posing the rhetorical question “Where are we? Where are we beginning to organise a compelling alternative story from the ground up? Where are we headed with our daily offensive strategy?

Even while he insists he is not a candidate for president, few Democrats, particularly if Biden falters, are likely to buy into his claim.

On the other side, the window of opportunity for Newsom may be closed if Democrats have an unexpectedly great night on election night.

Nancy Pelosi, the speaker (D-Calif.)

On Friday, September 30, 2022, Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) speaks to the media at her weekly news conference. Gregory Nash

If the House Democrats suffer a severe loss on election day, Pelosi’s almost 20-year reign as leader will certainly come to an end shortly.

Pelosi is a skilled politician, but it seems unlikely that at 82, she would attempt to maintain her leadership in the hopes of regaining the Speaker’s gavel in 2024 or later.

Many Democrats in the House are already dissatisfied with the leadership group, which includes 83-year-old Rep. Steny Hoyer of Maryland as majority leader and 82-year-old Rep. James Clyburn of South Carolina as majority whip.

Nevertheless, it would be dangerous to ever write Pelosi out.

All bets would be off if Democrats were to shock everyone by keeping control of the House or even reducing the GOP to a slim majority.

Rick Scott, sen (R-Fla.)

On Tuesday, September 20, 2022, after the biweekly policy luncheon, Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) speaks to the media. Afriyie, Peter

The Senate results on Tuesday matter a lot to the Florida senator for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is that he is sometimes touted as a prospective 2024 presidential contender.

Scott is the leader of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the political action committee for Senate Republicans.

More significantly, Democrats have seized on a plan Obama announced in February.

The suggestion that all federal law would “sunset” after five years, meaning that it would disappear unless reauthorized, proved to be the most politically divisive of Scott’s eleven points.

Social Security and Medicare, two very well-liked programmes on which seniors rely, would be covered by the clause.

Democrats have made a strong point on the campaign trail that the GOP will destroy the programmes, including Biden and former President Obama.

Scott’s strategy was almost immediately abandoned by McConnell.

Scott will share part of the responsibility if the Senate Republicans have a bad night.

Senator Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.)

On Thursday, October 13, 2022, Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) addresses a House Jan. 6 committee hearing on former President Trump’s attempts to hold onto power after losing the 2020 presidential election. Afriyie, Peter

Cheney, the most fervent Republican opponent of Trump on Capitol Hill, is not running for office. In an August primary, she was soundly beaten by opponent Harriet Hageman, a supporter of Donald Trump.

In recent weeks, Cheney has even backed certain Democratic candidates, notably Rep. Tim Ryan (Ohio) for the Senate and Rep. Elissa Slotkin (Mich.) for reelection to the House. Cheney’s estrangement from the current GOP is all but complete.

It’s a fairly safe bet that Cheney will be keenly observing how the candidates who are most supportive of Trump do, particularly those who have repeated the former president’s erroneous allegations of electoral fraud, such as Arizona’s Lake.

Cheney’s viewpoint won’t be accepted by the GOP as a whole any time soon. But if the MAGA wing had a poor night, she could feel some pleasure.

If the results are different, it will simply be another indication that Hillary lost the internal war inside the GOP.