UK people like Sunak as their next leader but not his party

Britain’s prime minister, Rishi Sunak, has been in office for one month. That’s a success in the turbulent world of U.K. politics in 2022.

After Liz Truss’ short tenure as president before him, Sunak, who assumed power on October 25 a month ago Friday, has stabilized the country. Sunak, the first person of color to serve as prime minister of Britain, has calmed the European Union after years of tension between his country and the EU, steadied the economy, and reassured friends from Washington to Kiev.

But Sunak’s problems are only getting started. The economy is slowing down, there is a cost-of-living issue, and the Conservative Party in charge is squabbling and losing support after 12 years in office.

POPULARITY, PARTICULAR

Both good and bad news for Sunak may be found in opinion surveys. The 42-year-old former investment banker is well-liked by the people, but his party is a different story.

47% of respondents to an Ipsos poll indicated they liked the prime minister, while 41% said they didn’t.

Gideon Skinner, the director of political research at Ipsos, said that this was “certainly better” than the support that Boris Johnson had earlier this year. The Conservative Party brand, he said, “is not showing indications of picking up” on Sunak’s popularity.

In the same study, just 26% of respondents said they liked the Conservative Party, while 62% said they didn’t. These are the party’s lowest ratings in 15 years. Ipsos estimates the accuracy of its telephone poll of 1,004 individuals to be plus or minus four percentage points.

Many people are happy to see Sunak succeed Truss and Johnson, who resigned in July after three scandal-filled years in government. However, because the party has been in power since 2010, it is difficult for Conservatives to escape responsibility for the nation’s financial problems.

Its reputation is also being tarnished by persistent accusations of misbehavior. Sunak hired a top attorney on Wednesday to look into accusations of intimidation against his deputy prime minister, Dominic Raab.

The Conservatives may yet regain support before the next election, which is scheduled for the end of 2024. It won’t be simple however. According to recent surveys, the Labour Party would win easily.

DYING ECONOMIC

Sunak, who was Britain’s treasury chief at the time, rose to prominence by spending billions to sustain closed firms and pay the wages of furloughed employees during the height of the coronavirus outbreak.

He must now administer harsh medication. Brexit, the epidemic, and notably Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which has skyrocketed energy costs worldwide, are all weighing heavily on Britain’s economy.

Energy costs have skyrocketed for millions of Britons, but a government-imposed limit has kept costs from rising much more. The National Health Service in Britain has seen record-breaking wait times for medical services due to pandemic-related backlogs and personnel shortages.

Truss’ ill-advised September package of unfunded tax cuts, which destroyed the U.K.’s reputation for fiscal restraint, devalued the pound, increased the cost of borrowing, and precipitated emergency central bank action, made the problem worse. After less than two months on the job, Truss quit last month.

In his first speech to the country on October 25, Sunak said, “I completely grasp how tough things are” and spoke of “difficult choices to come.”

Last week’s emergency budget, which came with the potential of future cutbacks to public expenditure and tax increases totaling $25 billion, helped to stabilize the pound and the markets.

The United Kingdom’s GDP is expected to contract by 0.4% in 2023 and expand by only 0.2% in 2024, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the lowest projection among the Group of Seven industrialized nations.

WORLD WAR II

In Kyiv, where he garnered sympathy and respect for his steadfast backing of Ukraine’s resistance against Russian aggression, Boris Johnson’s departure raised concerns.

More than any other nation save the United States, Britain has provided Ukraine with military assistance totaling 2.3 billion pounds ($2.8 billion) since the crisis began, and it has actively urged friends to support Kyiv more.

To reassure Volodymyr Zelenskyy that British policy would not alter under his leadership, Sunak flew to Kyiv last week. Sunak said Zelenskyy, “I am pleased of how the U.K. stood with you from the very beginning.” “And I’m here to say that the UK will continue to support Ukraine,” she said.

London has just announced that it would send three Sea King helicopters, anti-drone equipment, and anti-aircraft weaponry to Ukraine as part of its ongoing assistance.

Although support for Ukraine is unwavering, military expenditures may see pressure. Truss promised to boost military expenditure to 3% of GDP by 2030, but Sunak has reneged on that promise.

HEADACHES OF BREXIT

Since Britain left the then-27-nation European Union in 2020, ties with its closest neighbors and key economic partners have been turbulent. Both Johnson and Truss seemed to take great pleasure in inflaming the EU in order to appease the influential euroskeptic section of the Conservative Party.

Since becoming office, Sunak has been more cordial, making cordial phone calls to European leaders. Given the influence that hardcore Brexiteers have inside the Conservative Party, enacting real change is more challenging.

Customs checks and other trade restrictions brought about by Britain’s withdrawal from the EU in 2020 caused a political crisis in Northern Ireland and put a stop to the free movement of EU citizens into Britain to fill open positions.

If Britain agreed to comply with EU regulations in certain sectors, including as veterinary or food standards, it may reduce trade friction. But Sunak declared this week that he would not accept “alignment with EU regulations” in response to rumors that the administration was pursuing deeper links that enraged eurosceptics.

The outcry “has highlighted just how deep the Europe issue is for Rishi Sunak and for the Conservative Party,” according to David Henig, a trade specialist at the European Centre for International Political Economy.

He said Sunak is a pragmatist who “simply wants a partnership that works — and it pretty plainly doesn’t at the present,” despite having long supported Brexit.

Henig said, “I believe the issue is that he has no big new ideas as to how to make it work, and there is a lot of internal dissent.”