World leaders gathered all week to talk about global issues. Putin appears to have left his seat at the table.

One thing is abundantly evident after the three significant meetings of global leaders that have recently taken place throughout Asia: Vladimir Putin is no longer a big player on the international scene.

Putin, whose invasion of Ukraine over the last nine months has wreaked havoc on the European nation and rocked the global economy, chose not to participate in any of the diplomatic events and instead found himself facing harsh criticism as the world’s opposition to his war seemed to grow.

Earlier this week, the Group of 20 (G20) leaders met in Bali and issued a statement that noted differences in opinions and referred to national positions voiced in other fora, such as a UN resolution condemning Russian aggression against Ukraine “in the harshest terms.”

Leaders of the 21 nations that make up Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) are prepared to perhaps issue a similar statement when the summit draws to an end on Saturday in Bangkok.

After months of discussions and meetings, those economies’ foreign ministers finally came to an agreement on Friday on their own joint statement, which echoed verbatim the language presented in Bali earlier this week. This opens the door for APEC leaders to follow suit when their meeting concludes on Saturday.

The letter said that there were many “assessments” held inside the group, adding that “most members strongly denounced the conflict in Ukraine and highlighted it is inflicting great human misery and increasing existing fragilities in the world economy.”

Leaving aside the discussions at the summits, the last week has shown Putin as being more and more isolated. The Russian president is holed up in Moscow and refuses to even interact with other world leaders when they convene in large gatherings.

According to Alexander Gabuev, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Putin’s assessment was probably influenced by his fear of potential political maneuvers against him should he leave the capital, his obsession with personal security, and his desire to avoid confrontational scenes at summits.

He could also not want to draw unfavorable attention to the few countries that have continued to support Russia, including China and India, whose leaders Putin met with at a summit in Uzbekistan in September.

According to Gabuev, “He doesn’t want to be this poisonous man.”

view hardening
However, there are indications of lost tolerance even among nations which have not taken a harsh position against Russia—if not against Russia itself, then certainly against the ripple consequences of its aggressiveness. Energy shortages, food security concerns, and soaring global inflation are now straining economies all around the globe.

Although Indonesia, which hosted the G20, did not expressly denounce Russia for the invasion on Tuesday, its President Joko Widodo said, “We must halt the conflict.”

India also urged G20 leaders earlier this week to “find a way to return to the road of truce,” since it has been a major consumer of Russian energy even as the West has shied away in recent months. The phrase “Today’s period must not one of war” appears in the conference’s closing statement, echoing what Modi told Putin when they spoke in September outside of a meeting on regional security in Uzbekistan.

It’s less certain if China, whose strategic alliance with Russia is strengthened by the good chemistry between leader Xi Jinping and Putin, has changed its position. Beijing has resisted calling the invasion an invasion for a very long time. Instead, Moscow has criticized Western sanctions and emphasized Kremlin talking points that NATO and the US are to blame for the crisis, but in recent months, this language has seemed to be toned down on its state-controlled domestic media.

Although Xi promised to oppose the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine and restated China’s desire for a ceasefire via negotiation in side meetings with Western leaders this past week, such statements are not included in China’s report of the discussions.

Later, in a meeting with US President Joe Biden, Xi restated China’s view that “nuclear weapons cannot be utilized and a nuclear war cannot be waged,” according to Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, who spoke to state media in Beijing.

However, experts on Chinese foreign policy suggest that China’s intention to retain its close relations with Russia is likely still intact.

Although these comments indirectly criticize Vladimir Putin, Brian Hart, a fellow with the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said he didn’t believe they were meant to distance China from Russia. “Xi is speaking to a listenership that wants to hear these things.”

Split-screen
Xi’s diplomatic visit to Bali and Bangkok this week, though, makes Russia’s isolation seem even more glaring.

While Xi was viewed as a valued global partner by Western leaders, several of whom visited with the Chinese leader for discussions aimed at improving communication and collaboration, the Biden administration saw Beijing — not Moscow — as the “most severe long-term risk” to the international order.

French President Emmanuel Macron sought to make a difference between Russia’s actions and the tensions with China in his passionate plea for peace given to a gathering of business executives taking place alongside the APEC conference in Bangkok on Friday.

Macron said: “What makes this war different is that it is an attack against international laws. He was alluding to US-China rivalry and escalating conflict in Asia’s regional waterways. All nations… benefit from stability because of international laws,” it said, before urging Russia to return “to the table” and “respect international law.”

After a Russian-made missile struck Poland on Wednesday, the last day of the G20 meeting, killing two people, the urgency of that emotion increased. A danger to Polish security as a NATO member might result in a reaction from the whole union.

Initial inquiry indicated the missile may have accidentally come from the Ukrainian side during missile defense, which helped alleviate the crisis. However, it also underscored how easily a mistake might trigger a global conflict.

The next day, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken referred to a “split-screen,” as he put it.

As the world tries to assist the most disadvantaged, Russia attacks them; as leaders across the globe reaffirmed our commitment to the UN Charter and international laws that benefit all of our people, we are seeing a very revealing split screen. These same ideals are still being attempted to be undermined by President Putin, Blinken told reporters in Bangkok on Thursday night.

Consensus?
The US and its allies were prepared to convey that message to their international counterparts going into the week of the international gathering. Strong statements have been made, but it has been difficult to get agreement on that point of view; disagreements still exist.

While the majority of members “strongly condemned” the war, there were “other views and different assessments of the situation and sanctions,” according to the G20 declaration and the ministerial-level statement from APEC, both of which acknowledge the differences in how members of the UN voted to support its resolution “deploring” Russian aggression.

According to representatives from both summits, it was difficult to even make such a statement with qualifications. According to Indonesia’s Jokowi, G20 leaders discussed the paragraph on Ukraine up until “midnight.”

The geostrategic and economic ties that the countries in the groupings have with Russia influence how they operate. According to the former Thai foreign minister Kantathi Suphamongkhon, another worry some Asian countries may have is if sanctions on Russia are a part of a US effort to undermine Moscow.

The RAND Corporation Center for Asia Pacific Policy advisory board member Suphamongkhon said, “Countries are saying we don’t want to merely be a pawn in this game to be used to undermine another power” (CAPP). Instead, he argued, framing criticism of Russia in terms of its “violation of international law and possible war crimes” would focus on issues that “everyone here condemns.”

Rejecting Russia in that way may also send a message to China, which has pledged to use force if necessary to “reunify” with Taiwan’s self-governing democracy and has flouted UN rulings rejecting its territorial claims in the South China Sea.

Efforts this week may have increased pressure on Putin, but the Russian president is accustomed to such dynamics: the Group of Seven (G7) bloc was the Group of Eight before Putin was expelled over his annexation of Crimea in 2014; it is unclear whether the impact of the international expressions will be felt.

Leaders emphasized this week that suffering will continue without Putin, and that the international system would suffer as a result.